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“We now have a whole generation that does not remember the last time that geopolitics was a driver to price movements in markets,” said Philippa Malmgren, president and founder of DRPM Group, at the 2015 CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference in Kuwait City. The geopolitics of the Middle East, the United States, Russia, and China has created a new Cold War of unquantifiable forces that is more than capable of moving markets, Malmgren told her audience of Middle Eastern investors. What is making matters worse for investors is that “we are all so specialized these days,” Malmgren added. “We have a globalized, interconnected world that is being run by people in narrow and specific silos.” Malmgren’s mission is to return geopolitics to the forefront of the landscape where it belongs, having spent many years after the end of the Cold War on the sidelines of investor attention. She believes defense and geopolitics have been marginalized for too long, as investors bask in a post–Cold War peace dividend and long periods of moderate inflation. In the last decade, we have created an extraordinary debt problem and a slowdown in the world economy that has been brought about by that debt, according to Malmgren. Central banks in the developed countries have been doing their level best to create inflation whilst at the same time saying their loose monetary policies are not yet having the desired effect and so must be continued, she added. For emerging markets, such as those in the ...Read More
I am going to keep this very short and sweet. I am writing this in the first place due to an email I received from a friend of mine living and working in the Middle East. He asked me: “What do you think about Dubai debt and its impact?” Here is what I think: The Dubai debt and the impact is peanuts...there is so much over-hype right now. Many people just want to turn their attention to Dubai because it had the balls to think, dream, and actually do big things...to better themselves and the region as a whole. You talk to anyone in the world and mention “Dubai”...and what do people say?...Let me tell you what they say...they say: “I soooooooo want to go there!” Nuff said folks. Dubai is like Miami, FL...great place, dynamic place, melting pot, etc...its not going anywhere...it only gets better in time If anything...it will bounce back and be better...every time you fall...you must get up and challenge yourself again...they will...and this time a new wave of leadership and policy's that need to be implemented will help them grow stronger for everyone. Short term If I ran a fund...I would be buying "paper" backed by some of these assets. I would also find a way to slide into the private banking space through a re-capitalization of a smaller regional bank. There is a huge "psyche" play here that most people fail to realize. People with money are frightened...and this causes them to move money ...Read More
Creating In partnership with the West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), we are pleased to invite you to attend our annual global regional investment development event: “2nd West Africa Global Banking and Financial Investment Forum 2012”, opening 8.30am to 5pm, on 5th -6th November 2012, at The Gibson Hall, 13 Bishopsgate, City of London, EC2N 3BA, United Kingdom.
Tumbling energy prices have shocked energy markets, and investment professionals are left wondering whether it is due to a change that is cyclical or structural. Meanwhile, oil producers must adjust budgets and expenditures, with knock on effects that could be significant for every aspect of a global economy so closely entwined with oil and petroleum products at every stage of manufacturing and distribution. From here on, the strategies employed by MENA countries that have historically subsidized energy consumption are likely to be of key interest to local businesses and global investors in equal measure. The role of oil in the MENA region and the complexities of changing economic models are brought sharply into focus in Kuwait. The oil-rich gulf state recently calculated its upcoming budget on the basis of oil at $45 a barrel, down from $75 a barrel in the current fiscal year, cutting subsidies on diesel, kerosene and aviation fuel. At the same time, it announced plans to fund more than 500 key projects as part of a five-year development plan. As investors gather in Kuwait for the CFA Institute Middle East Investment Conference on 10 February, they will scrutinize the impact and opportunities of these shifting priorities in Kuwait and across the region. Kuwait has been preparing to invest in the new reality by launching efforts to diversify its economy, including efforts to nurture small and medium enterprises (SMEs) within its borders. The Kuwait National Fund for SMEs Development was established in 2013, and last year His ...Read More